Self-updating Elo + Poisson Monte Carlo ยท 49,000 internationals since 1872 ยท club league predictor โ
connectingโฆ
๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ It's Coming Home mode is ON. England's numbers now include a +12% optimism
adjustment, lovingly calibrated to Dominic's confidence. This is patriotism, not statistics โ
the details panels, tweets and track record still use the real model numbers.
Live now โ in-game win probability
Next up โ model picks
Who wins the World Cup? โ 10,000 tournament simulations, re-run on every result
How to read a prediction. The bar shows each outcome's probability โ
win, draw, or win. The "most likely score" is the single most probable exact scoreline.
These can disagree: a model can say South Korea 45% to win yet call 1โ1 the likeliest
score, because 1โ1 is the biggest single result while South Korea's many winning scores
(1โ0, 2โ1, 2โ0โฆ) add up to more. The bar answers "who wins?"; the score answers "what's the
single most likely final score?". The ๐ก ๐ค โ๏ธ badges mark heat, rest and travel adjustments.
Model track record โ graded against every finished match, before kickoff
Any-matchup predictor โ neutral venue, live-updated Elo
vs
Team data
Likely scorelines
How this works
PitchProb predicts FIFA World Cup 2026 matches with live win probabilities, most-likely scorelines,
group qualification odds and championship chances for all 48 teams โ USA, Mexico, Canada hosts โ
updated every minute during the tournament, with a public track record of every prediction.